四川省寒潮灾害致灾指数研究

Research on the Disaster Index of Cold Wave Disaster in Sichuan Province

摘要: 灾害性天气的致灾能力评估，是指导精准防灾减灾行动，提高防灾减灾效益的重要科学技术手段。本文以四川省4场寒潮天气过程为例，根据熵最大原理，拟合出表征寒潮灾害天气过程的概率分布特征，并在此基础上，利用灰色关联度法，计算出寒潮灾害天气过程的致灾指数，用来评估每一场寒潮天气过程的致灾能力。

Abstract: The assessment of the disaster-causing capability of severe weather is an important scientific and technological means to guide precise disaster prevention and mitigation actions and improve the benefits of disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper, 4 cold wave weather processes in Si-chuan Province are taken as examples. According to the principle of entropy maximization, the probability distribution characteristics of cold wave disaster weather processes are fitted. On this basis, the Grey Relational Analysis is used to calculate the cold wave disaster index. The disaster index is used to evaluate the disaster-causing ability of each cold wave weather process.