1960~2019年昆明≥10℃热量资源的变化分析

Analysis on the Change of Heat Resources in Kunming from 1960 to 2019

摘要: 在全球环境变暖的背景下，为了研究近昆明地区的热量资源的变化情况，本文采用了昆明市气象局近60年的逐日平均气温，通过五日滑动平均法计算得到≥10℃的活动积温、积温初日、积温终日和积温持续日数，并且通过线性回归方程以及M-K突变检验的方法对该地区的热量资源变化进行了分析，结果表明：1) ≥10℃的积温年际变化显著增加，增加变化率为185.5℃/10a；2) ≥10℃的积温初日在1960~2019年整体上在显著地提前；3) 随着年份的增加≥10℃的积温终日在显著地推后；4) ≥10℃的积温持续日数随着年份是在显著地增加的。

Abstract: Under the background of global warming, in order to study the change of heat resources in Kun-ming area, the daily average temperature of Kunming Meteorological Bureau in recent 60 years is used in this paper. The active accumulated temperature of ≥10˚C is calculated by the five-day moving average method, the initial day, the final day and the continuous days of accumulated temperature are obtained, and the linear regression equation and m-k mutation test are used. The results show that: 1) The interannual variation of accumulated temperature ≥ 10˚C increased significantly, with an increase rate of 185.5˚C/10a; 2) The first day of accumulated temperature ≥10˚C was significantly advanced from 1960 to 2019 as a whole; 3) With the year, the increase of accumulated temperature of ≥10˚C is significantly delayed; 4) The number of continuous days of accumulated temperature of ≥10˚C increases significantly with the year.