基于风险评估的海外油气新项目弃置费估算方法构建
Estimation Method of Abandonment Cost of New Overseas Oil and Gas Projects Based on Risk Assessment
DOI: 10.12677/SA.2020.96097, PDF,   
作者: 陈 荣, 何媛媛, 易成高：中石油勘探开发研究院国际项目评价所，北京；米祥冉：中国石油天然气勘探开发公司，北京
关键词: 风险评估；弃置；海外油气新项目；评价指标；估算方法；Risk Assessment； Abandonment； New Overseas Oil and Gas Projects； Evaluation Index； Estimation Method
摘要: 随着各国环保要求趋严，海外油气新项目评价中弃置义务风险也趋严重，准确评估弃置风险和估算弃置费是规避风险的有效手段，为解决新项目评价中无弃置风险评估指标、费率法估算弃置费不规范、人为因素影响较大的问题，通过分析识别影响弃置风险和成本的主要因素，建立分油气项目弃置评价指标体系。采用专家强制打分法确定各指标评分，根据评分高低确定不同项目弃置风险等级并估算相应弃置费。研究的弃置风险评估指标和弃置费估算方法将风险量化和费用估算相结合，在近几年的海外新项目评价中应用，结果与依据弃置工程方案估算相差在10%以内，估算精度能够满足为投资决策提供支撑的要求。
Abstract: With the stringent requirements of environmental protection in various countries, the risk of abandonment obligation in the evaluation of new overseas oil and gas projects becomes more and more serious. Accurate assessment of the abandonment risk and estimation of the abandonment cost are effective means to avoid the risk, in order to solve the problems in the evaluation of new projects, such as non-abandonment risk evaluation index, irregular estimation of abandonment cost, and the influence of human factors, the paper analyzes and identifies the main factors that affect the risk and cost of abandonment, establishes evaluation index system for abandonment of oil and gas separation projects. The expert forced marking method is used to determine the scores of each index, and the abandonment risk grade of different items is determined according to the scores and the corresponding disposal cost is estimated. The abandonment risk assessment index and the abandonment cost estimation method combined the risk quantification and the cost estimation, which were applied in the overseas new project evaluation in recent years. The difference between the result and the estimation based on the abandonment project scheme was less than 10%, the estimation accuracy can meet the requirement of supporting investment decision.
文章引用：陈荣, 何媛媛, 易成高, 米祥冉. 基于风险评估的海外油气新项目弃置费估算方法构建[J]. 统计学与应用, 2020, 9(6): 927-932. https://doi.org/10.12677/SA.2020.96097

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