城镇基准地价评估模型构建与应用研究——以龙口市中心城区商业用地为例

Construction and Application of Urban Benchmark Land Price Evaluation Model—Take Commercial Land in Downtown of Longkou as a Case

摘要: 研究基准地价评估方法，构建基准地价评估模型，对科学评估基准地价、丰富基准地价评估方法以及调控土地市场有重要意义。以龙口市2019年城镇基准地价更新项目为依托，基于出租样点地价和定级分值分级别、全部样点构建回归模型及基于转让、出让样点地价建立灰色模型评估商业用地基准地价。结果表明：(1) 全样点回归模型预测结果与其他两种模型预测结果相差较大，与2016年基准地价相比四、五级地上涨幅度过高。分级别回归模型与灰色模型两种方法评估结果相差较小，相比2016年增长幅度合理。(2) 以分级别回归模型与灰色模型预测结果平均值作为基准地价最终结果。2019年基准地价一级地为2211元/m2，末级地为456元/m2，各级别间地价差异随级别递减逐渐缩小。与2016年对比，各级基准地价均呈上升趋势，平均增长率为5.54%，符合土地市场实际发展状况。

Abstract: It is of great significance to study benchmark land price assessment methods and construct benchmark land price assessment models for scientific assessment of benchmark land prices, en-richment of benchmark land price assessment methods, and regulation of the land market. Based on Longkou City’s 2019 benchmark land price update project, a regression model is constructed based on the rental sample land price and grading scores, including two methods for each level and all samples, and a gray model based on the transfer sample land prices is used to evaluate the benchmark land price of commercial land. The results show that: (1) The prediction results of the full-sample regression model differ greatly from the prediction results of the other two models. Compared with the benchmark land price in 2016, the increase of the fourth- and fifth-level land is too high. The difference between the evaluation results of the graded-sample regression model and the gray model is small, and the growth rate is reasonable compared to 2016. (2) Take the average of the prediction results of the graded-sample regression model and the gray model as the final result of the benchmark land price. The benchmark land price for first level land in 2019 is 2211 yuan/m2, and the final level land price is 456 yuan/m2. The gap in land prices between the levels gradually narrowed as the levels decreased. Compared with 2016, the benchmark land prices at all levels are on the rise, with an average growth rate of 5.54%, which is in line with the actual development of the land market.