基于原材料价格和库容监控的铜制废旧线缆处置分析模型研究

Research on Analysis Model of Disposal of Waste Copper Cables Based on Raw Material Price and Storage Capacity Monitoring

摘要: 随着电网建设规模的持续扩大，对金属导线的用量需求逐渐增加，由于新旧产品的更替速度较快，每年有大量铜制废旧线缆退役退出，为提高电网企业废旧物资管理的经济与社会效益，本项目从铜制废旧线缆的实际处置情况出发，识别废旧电力电缆处置价格的关键材料，建立多因素时间序列分析模型，实现废旧线缆处置与市场价格联动，形成智能分包与智能设定竞拍底价的处置策略，实现处置效益的最大化。同时，结合废旧仓库库容管理，形成铜制废旧线缆动态批次处置预警机制，以实现处置效率的最大化。联合价格预测、库容监控两方面共同优化电力企业废旧物资处置管理工作，提升电力企业废旧线缆处置收益，为电力公司提质增效做出贡献。

Abstract: With the continuous expansion of the scale of power grid construction, the demand for metal wires is gradually increasing. Due to the rapid replacement of new and old products, a great number of waste copper cables are withdrawn from service every year. In order to improve the economic and social benefits of waste materials management for power grid enterprises, this project starts from the actual disposal of copper-made waste cables, identifies key materials for the disposal price of waste power cables, establishes a multi-factor time series analysis model and realizes the disposal of waste cables link with market prices to form a disposal strategy of intelligent subcontracting and intelligent setting the bidding reserve price to maximize disposal benefits. At the same time, combined with the storage management of waste warehouses, a dynamic batch disposal early warning mechanism for copper waste cables is formed to maximize disposal efficiency. Combining price forecasting and storage capacity monitoring to jointly optimize the disposal and management of waste materials for power companies, increase the income of power companies from the disposal of waste cables, and contribute to the improvement of quality and efficiency of power companies.