上海市浦东新区高血压发病因素分析

Analysis of Factors of Hypertension in Shanghai Pudong New Area

摘要: 为研究浦东新区高血压发病的因素，本文收集了2010年1月至2014年12月共60期上海市浦东新区高血压发病就诊数据，并使用ARMA模型，季节模型和Holt-Winters拟合分析并预测得到了12期数据，与实际数据对比，得出高血压发病就诊数具有明显的季节周期特征的结论，故我们认为季节变化对于高血压发病情况具有显著影响。

Abstract: In order to study the factors of the incidence of hypertension in Pudong New Area, this paper collected 60 periods of data on the incidence of hypertension in Pudong New Area, Shanghai from January 2010 to December 2014, and used ARMA model, seasonal model and Holt-Winters fitting analysis. The 12-period data is predicted and compared with the actual data. It is concluded that the number of patients with hypertension has obvious seasonal cycle characteristics. Therefore, we believe that seasonal changes have a significant impact on the incidence of hypertension.