基于统计方法对我国温带季风区气候变化的分析

Analysis of Climate Change in China’s Temperate Monsoon Region Based on Statistical Methods

摘要: 以昌乐地区为例，尝试总结小范围温带季风区气候的气温、降水变化规律，并简要预测其变动趋势。文中选取了1961~2019年山东省昌乐县的气温与降水数据，分别利用线性趋势估计、小波分析、R/S分析计算Hurst特征值的方法对气象指标进行分析。通过研究，发现昌乐地区已经对于全球气候变暖做出了响应。气温方面，表现为年均温显著上升，年际最低温大幅上升，候温划分法下的季节长度产生变动，冬季明显缩短，夏季时长进一步增加。降水方面，年均降水和汛期、非汛期降水变动较为稳定，保持着以27a为主要周期的波动规律，但汛期的降水集中期显著后移。

Abstract: With the increasingly severe situation of global warming, the climate in various regions of the world responds to the warming and presents different change characteristics. Taking Changle region as an example, this paper attempts to summarize the climate change rules of temperature and precipitation in a small range of temperate monsoon regions, and to predict the change trend. In this paper, the temperature and precipitation data of Changle region from 1961 to 2019 were selected, and the meteorological indicators were analyzed by using linear trend estimation, wavelet analysis and R/S analysis to calculate the characteristic value of Hurst. The study found that Changle region has made response to global warming. In terms of temperature, the annual average temperature and the lowest annual temperature increased significantly, the length of the season under the method of temperature division changed, the winter was significantly shortened, and the length of the summer was further increased. In terms of precipitation, the annual average precipitation and precipitation in flood season and non-flood season are relatively stable, maintaining the fluctuation rule with 27a as the main period, but the precipitation concentration period in flood season is significantly backward.