基于双缺口模型的我国经常账户余额影响因素分析

An Analysis of Influencing Factors on China’s Current Account Balance Based on Double Domestic Saving-Investment GAPs Model

摘要: 对经常项目失衡与国内储蓄投资缺口之间的关系进行分析，结果表明：长期来看，私人和政府二部门的储蓄投资缺口对外部失衡均有显著正向的、大体相同的效应，新增固定资产投资的正向效应较弱；短期来看，私人部门和政府部门的储蓄投资缺口对外部失衡的正向效应很小，新增固定资产投资的负向效应几乎为零。说明解决中国内外均衡问题不应只看居民储蓄率高于世界水平一个方面，而应当将居民部门、企业部门和政府部门三者的储蓄投资放在同等重要的位置予以解析。

Abstract: The analysis of the relationship between current account imbalance and domestic sav-ing-investment gaps suggests that both private and government sector’s saving-investment gaps have about similar conspicuous directional effects; the newly added fixed asset investment exerts relatively smaller effect in long-term, while in short-term, the two sector’s saving-investment gaps tend to impose only miniature directional impact on external imbalance, and the effect of newly added fixed asset investment comes near zero. The results indicate that solutions to China’s internal balance and external balance not only require concerning the higher Chinese household’s saving rate, but equally need dialysis of household’s, government’s, and firm’s saving-investments simul-taneously.