人类世时代背景下城市适应气候变化的若干思考

Thoughts on Climate Change Adaptation in Cities under the Context of the Anthropocene

摘要: 大量科学证据表明，地球已经进入被科学界称之为人类世时代的新的地质时代。在要素大加速、复杂性和互连性增加，不可逆过程增多为特征的人类世时代，涌现出系统性风险等新型风险。城市化是人类社会发展的高级阶段，但以化石能源为基础的城市建设和发展对地球生态环境也产生了巨大影响。全球气候变化影响与城市快速发展两者的叠加，使城市适应气候变化过程中所面临的灾害风险日趋复杂化、综合化和多样化。本文从介绍人类世时代概念和特征出发，指出城市作为人类社会发展的高级阶段。在全球人口持续增加、城市自身发展日趋复杂等不可逆过程驱动下，城市面临的灾害风险也将日趋复杂化、综合化和多样化。应用作者研究团队提出的ISEET系统分析框架，本文从综合风险防范角度，围绕城市系统的复杂性、信息通讯技术快速发展和气象信息服务产业发展等维度，指出城市适应气候变化行动必须既要考虑与城市防灾减灾结合，更应积极融入到城市长期可持续发展进程中。

Abstract: An abundance of scientific evidence shows that the Earth has entered a new geological epoch, known in the scientific world as the Anthropocene. There emerge new types of risks especially systematic risks in the Anthropocene where elements accelerate but with higher complexity and interconnection and more irreversible processes. Urbanization is taken as an advanced human society development stage, but the construction and development of cities based on fossil energy has also rendered a huge impact on the ecological environment of the Earth. Affected by global climate changes and rapid urban development, the disaster risks faced by cities in adapting to climate change become increasingly complicated, comprehensive and diversified. This paper firstly introduces the concepts and characteristics of the Anthropocene, pointing out that cities are the advanced stage of human social development. Driven by irreversible processes such as the ever-increasing global population and the increasing complexity of urban development, the disaster risks faced by cities will be more than ever complicated, comprehensive and diversified. Using the ISEET system analysis framework put forward by the author’s research team, this paper indicates that climate change adaptation shall not only go in step with urban disaster prevention and mitigation, but also be integrated actively into the long-term sustainable development of cities for comprehensive risk governance with efforts focusing on aspects of urban systems complexity, rapid development of information and communication technology and development of meteorological information service industries.