GM (1,1)模型在上海社区卫生服务预测中的应用

The Application of GM (1,1) Model in the Prediction of the Community Health Service in Shanghai

摘要: 目的：模拟预测上海社区卫生服务中心(站)诊疗人次和入院人数的动态变化趋势，为有关部门制定合理政策提供参考依据。方法：采用GM(1,1)模型对2010~2018年诊疗人次和入院人数进行模拟，并预测2019~2021年的变化趋势。结果：建立的灰色模型精度均达到一级，预测结果显示前者呈增长趋势，而后者逐年递减，二者在整体中的比重下降。结论：GM(1,1)模型能较好应用于上海社区卫生服务中心(站)诊疗人次和入院人数的预测。从内部环境看，应注重社区卫生服务中心(站)医疗卫生资源的投入；外部环境看，要加强连续性医疗服务体系建设。

Abstract: Objective: To simulate and predict the dynamic trend of the number of diagnosis and treatment and inpatients of the community health service centers (stations) in Shanghai, and to provide reference for relevant departments to formulate reasonable policies. Methods: Taking the GM (1,1) model to simulate the number of diagnosis and treatment and inpatients from 2010 to 2018 and predict the trend from 2019 to 2021. Results: The accuracy of the established grey models is up to the first level. The forecast result shows that the former is increasing, while the latter is decreasing year by year, and the proportion of the two in the whole is decreasing. Conclusion: GM (1,1) grey model can be applied to the prediction of the number of diagnosis and treatment and inpatients of the community health service centers (stations) in Shanghai better. From the internal environment, we should attach importance to the investment of medical and health resources in the community health service centers (stations); from the external environment, we should strengthen the construction of continuous medical service system.