基于信息熵的飞行冲突危险性评估

Estimation of Risk of Air Traffic Confliction Based on Information Entropy

摘要: 飞行冲突危险性评估是空中交通安全管理的重要组成部分，是提升空中交通系统运行安全性与效率的关键手段。以国内现有飞行冲突评估体系为基础，完善了对冲突航空器飞行诸元的描述，进一步将空域结构与运行环境纳入考量范围，重新构建动态化的飞行冲突评估体系。通过信息熵给体系中各指标赋权用以描述飞行冲突危险性的影响，并基于实际飞行冲突数据计算飞行冲突危险性时间序列，进而全面分析飞行冲突事件的危险性演化过程。

Abstract: Air traffic confliction estimation is one of the important parts of air traffic safety management and is a key method to improve the safety and efficiency of air traffic system. Base on the current index of safety estimation system, we restructure a new dynamic index. In this new index, we improve description about flight data in confliction and take the construction of air apace and the environment of operation into consideration. We use information entropy to describe the influence of different indicators of the risk of air traffic confliction. Finally, we fully analyze the progress of air traffic confliction according to time series of true air traffic data.