基于DLNM分析气温对新冠病毒肺炎疫情传播的影响
Analysis of the Impact of Temperature on the Spread of COVID-19 Based on DLNM
DOI: 10.12677/ORF.2021.111006, PDF,  被引量    科研立项经费支持
作者: 胡 阳, 刘 凤, 张小玉：贵州大学数学与统计学院，贵州 贵阳
关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎；分布滞后非线性模型；Spearman相关分析；COVID-19； DLNM； Spearman Correlation Analysis
摘要: 新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)作为新发传染病已经成为全球公共卫生问题，对人类的生存发展和社会稳定造成了严重的威胁，探索影响COVID-19传播的潜在因素是目前急需解决的问题。基于既往研究，气候条件是影响传染病流行和传播的关键因素，因此收集中国12个重点疫情城市2020年1月24~2月29日每日确诊病例同期气象和空气质量数据，利用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温对COVID-19疫情传播的影响。结果表明，气温对COVID-19疫情传播具有显著影响，在不同地区气温和COVID-19日确诊病例间的关系曲线主要呈“U型”，“V型”和“J型”。同时，处于极端温度时，东北和华北地区在潜伏期内具有较高的传播风险，而华中和西北地区则风险较低，但当气温处于中间值时，其相对风险达到峰值。华东、华南和西南地区的城市则需要更加关注在极端高温的情况。
Abstract: Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) as a new infectious disease has become a global public health problem, posing a serious threat to human survival and social development. Exploring the potential factors affecting the spread of infectious diseases is an urgent problem that needs to be resolved. Based on previous studies, climate conditions are the key factors affecting the prevalence and spread of infectious diseases. Therefore, this article collects daily confirmed cases, meteorological and air quality data of the same period in 12 main epidemic cities of China from January 24 to February 29, 2020, using a distributed lag nonlinear model to analyze the impact of temperature on the spread of COVID-19. The results show that temperature has a significant impact on the spread of COVID-19. The relationship between temperature and daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in different regions is mainly “U”, “V” and “J”. At the same time, when the temperature is extreme, Northeast and North China have a higher risk of transmission during the incubation period, while Central and Northwest China has a lower risk, but when the temperature is in the middle value, the relative risk reaches its peak. Cities in East China, South China, and Southwest China need to pay more attention to extreme high temperatures. The research results in this article will better guide the government to formulate more local conditions for the coming winter to prevent the recurrence of the new epidemic.
文章引用：胡阳, 刘凤, 张小玉. 基于DLNM分析气温对新冠病毒肺炎疫情传播的影响[J]. 运筹与模糊学, 2021, 11(1): 35-46. https://doi.org/10.12677/ORF.2021.111006

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