基于乘积季节模型的昆明市月度旅游人数预测

Forecast of Monthly Tourist Numbers in Kunming Based on the Multiplicative Seasonal Model

摘要: 随着我国社会发展，旅游产业扮演着越来越重要的角色。在有关旅游人数预测的研究中，各种预测模型层出不穷，本文借鉴现有的国内外研究经验，以2013年1月~2020年10月昆明市月度旅游人数为依托，运用时间序列模型中的乘积季节模型进行拟合，对模型进行各项检验后利用该模型对昆明市未来两个月的旅游人数做了相应预测。

Abstract: With the development of our society, tourism industry is playing an increasingly important role. There are all kinds of forecasting models in the studies of travel forecasting. Based on the existing research experience at home and abroad, this article uses the multiple seasonal ARIMA model to fit the monthly tourist population of Kunming from January 2013 to October 2020. Using this model to predict the number of tourists in Kunming in the next two months when the model can pass all the tests.