基于全球变暖对气候预测的研究

Researching on Climate Prediction with Global Warming

摘要: 当前全球气候现状形势严峻，全球变暖问题是众多国家关注的焦点。要想治理全球变暖，在补救目前危机的同时，更重要的是从源头治理。从新闻中也可以发现很多全球变暖对气候的影响。本文从加拿大的数据着手，说明近几十年来，各地温度的时空变化，极端天气的发生频率。考虑多种影响因素，采用AHP和熵值法相结合，建立了简单气候预测模型。另外对加拿大地区近十年的气候数据进行分析，建立极端天气模型，判断气候变化与极端天气是否有关。在全球变暖的大环境下，说明为何极端天气频发，“极寒天气”与全球变暖是否矛盾。并通过已收集到的数据与构建的模型，预测未来25年气候的变化，使更多人了解全球气候的变化趋势，从而警醒人们，加入到全球气候治理的队伍中来。

Abstract: The current situation of global climate is grim, and global warming is the focus of many countries. In order to control global warming, it is more important to control from the source while remedying the current crisis. We can also find a lot from the news because of the impact of global warming on the climate. Based on the data of Canada, this paper explains the temporal and spatial variation of temperature and the frequency of extreme weather in recent decades. Considering many factors, a simple climate prediction model is established by combining AHP with entropy method. In addition, the climate data of Canada in recent ten years are analyzed, and the extreme weather model is established to judge whether the climate change is related to the extreme weather. In the context of global warming, this paper explains why extreme weather occurs frequently, and whether extreme cold weather contradicts global warming. And through the collected data and the constructed model, we can predict the climate change in the next 25 years, so that more people can understand the trend of global climate change, so as to alert people to join the team of global climate governance.