人口流动背景下广东省新型冠状病毒城市分布特征

Urban Distribution Characteristics of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease in Guangdong Province under the Background of Population Mobility

摘要: 为掌握广东省人口流动对城市疫情病例分布的影响，为今后广东政府部门应对传染疾病和资源调动提供决策依据。本文基于人口流动的视角从时间和空间两个尺度分析人口流动对广东省疫情的影响与城市病例分布、扩散特征。研究发现：① 大规模的人口流动增加了广东省防控风险；② 武汉来粤人口分布特征与城市疫情暴发严重程度呈正相关；③ 感染者形成以珠三角城市集群为中心的集中型分布格局；④ 扩散方式以迁移扩散和等级扩散为主。

Abstract: In order to understand the impact of population mobility on the distribution of urban epidemic cases in Guangdong Province, and provide decision-making basis for Guangdong government departments to deal with infectious diseases and resource mobilization in the future. Based on the perspective of population mobility, this paper analyzes the impact of population mobility on the epidemic situation in Guangdong Province and the distribution and diffusion characteristics of urban cases from time and space scales. 1) The study found that large-scale population mobility increased the risk of prevention and control in Guangdong Province; 2) The population distribution characteristics of Wuhan to Guangdong were positively correlated with the severity of urban epidemic outbreak. 3) The infected people form a centralized distribution pattern centered on the urban clusters in the Pearl River Delta. 4) The diffusion mode is mainly migration diffusion and hierarchical diffusion.