模拟新型冠状病毒传播特征
Modeling the Epidemic Features of COVID-19
DOI: 10.12677/AAM.2021.104101, PDF,    国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 汪 妍, 李 玟, 张紫意, 赵奇林, 胡宸菲, 孙廷哲*：安庆师范大学生命科学学院，安徽 安庆
关键词: COVID-19；二次暴发；严格防控；无症状感染者；COVID-19； Secondary Outbreak； Strict Intervention； Asymptomatic Patients
摘要: 新型冠状病毒(Coronavirus Disease 2019, COVID-19)已在全球肆虐。新型冠状病毒感染人群中包含无症状感染者。无症状感染者由于没有明显症状，因此对疫情防控提出了挑战。我们搜集了2020年初安徽省和黑龙江省的流行病学数据并建立包含无症状感染者的微分方程数学模型，模型拟合可以较好地与实际流行病学数据匹配。通过随机模拟显示，无症状感染者的清零时间显著迟于确诊病例的清零时间。在基于安徽省流行病学数据的模型中也发现了类似的现象。另外，模拟结果同时表明：即使确诊病例实现清零，严密防控措施仍将持续，否则人群中少量的无症状感染者将很有可能造成疫情二次暴发。此模型强调了监测人群中无症状感染者对疫情防控的重要意义。
Abstract: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). There are asymptomatic patients and the asymptomatic features contribute largely to COVID-19 epidemic. We collected data from early 2020 in Anhui and Heilongjiang provinces. An ordinary differential equation model was used to fit the epidemic data. The complete recovery of asymptomatic patients was significantly delayed compared with that of diagnosed patients. Similar features were also observed in the model based on the epidemic data from Anhui province. Stochastic simulations demonstrated that strongly controlled measures should be maintained even after the total infected patients have recovered primarily owing to asymptomatic patients. Even minimal asymptomatic patients would lead to coronavirus outbreaks if strongly controlled measures were not continuously implemented.
文章引用：汪妍, 李玟, 张紫意, 赵奇林, 胡宸菲, 孙廷哲. 模拟新型冠状病毒传播特征[J]. 应用数学进展, 2021, 10(4): 931-938. https://doi.org/10.12677/AAM.2021.104101

参考文献

[1] Chen, C., Zhu, C., Yan, D., Liu, H., Li, D., Zhou, Y., et al. (2021) The Epidemiological and Radiographical Characteristics of Asymptomatic Infections with the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19): A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 104, 458-464. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[2] Guan, W.J., Ni, Z.Y., Hu, Y., Liang, W.H., Ou, C.Q., He, J.X., et al. (2020) Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China. New England Journal of Medicine, 382, 1708-1720. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[3] Dowd, J.B., Andriano, L., Brazel, D.M., Rotondi, V., Block, P., Ding, X., Liu, Y. and Mills, M.C. (2020) Demographic Science Aids in Understanding the Spread and Fatality Rates of COVID-19. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117, 9696-9698. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[4] ud Din, R. and Algehyne, E.A. (2021) Mathematical Analysis of COVID-19 by Using SIR Model with Convex Incidence Rate. Results in Physics, 23, Article ID: 103970. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[5] Roques, L., Bonnefon, O., Baudrot, V., Soubeyrand, S. and Berestycki, H. (2020) A Parsimonious Approach for Spatial Transmission and Heterogeneity in the COVID-19 Propagation. Royal Society Open Science, 7, Article ID: 201382. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[6] Roques, L., Klein, E.K., Papax, J., Sar, A. and Soubeyrand, S. (2020) Using Early Data to Estimate the Actual Infection Fatality Ratio from COVID-19 in France. Biology, 9, Article No.97. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[7] Wu, J.T., Leung, K. and Leung, G.M. (2020) Nowcasting and Forecasting the Potential Domestic and International Spread of the 2019-nCoV Outbreak Originating in Wuhan, China: A Modelling Study. Lancet, 395, 689-697. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[8] Kuniya, T. (2020) Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 9, Article No. 789. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[9] Mandal, S., Bhatnagar, T., Arinaminpathy, N., Agarwal, A., Chowdhury, A., Murhekar, M., Gangakhedkar, R.R. and Sarkar, S. (2020) Prudent Public Health Intervention Strategies to Control the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission in India: A Mathematical Model-Based Approach. Indian Journal of Medical Research, 151, 190-199. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[10] Mizumoto, K. and Chowell, G. (2020) Transmission Potential of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Onboard the Diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020. Infectious Disease Modelling, 5, 264-270. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[11] Karako, K., Song, P., Chen, Y. and Tang, W. (2020) Analysis of COVID-19 Infection Spread in Japan Based on Stochastic Transition Model. BioScience Trends, 14, 134-138. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[12] Nishiura, H., Linton, N.M. and Akhmetzhanov, A.R. (2020) Serial Interval of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 93, 284-286. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[13] Li, M.Y., Graef, J.R., Wang, L. and Karsai, J. (1999) Global Dynamics of a SEIR Model with Varying Total Population Size. Mathematical Biosciences, 160, 191-213. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[14] Li, G., Li, W., He, X. and Cao, Y. (2020) Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic Infectors: Hidden Sources of COVID-19 Disease. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 71, 2018. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[15] Nishiura, H., Kobayashi, T., Miyama, T., Suzuki, A., Jung, S.M., Hayashi, K., Kinoshita, R., Yang, Y., Yuan, B., Akhmetzhanov, A.R. and Linton, N.M. (2020) Estimation of the Asymptomatic Ratio of Novel Coronavirus Infections (COVID-19). International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 94, 154-155. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[16] Mizumoto, K., Kagaya, K., Zarebski, A. and Chowell, G. (2020) Estimating the Asymptomatic Proportion of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Cases on Board the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020. Euro Surveill, 25, Article ID: 2000180. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[17] Tian, T. and Burrage, K. (2006) Stochastic Models for Regulatory Networks of the Genetic Toggle Switch. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103, 8372-8377. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[18] Maiwald, T. and Timmer, J. (2008) Dynamical Modeling and Multi-Experiment Fitting with Potters Wheel. Bioinformatics, 24, 2037-2043. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[19] Sun, T. and Weng, D. (2020) Estimating the Effects of Asymptomatic and Imported Patients on COVID-19 Epidemic Using Mathematical Modeling. Journal of Medical Virology, 92, 1995-2003. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[20] Li, Q., Guan, X., Wu, P., Wang, X., Zhou, L., Tong, Y., Ren, R., et al. (2020) Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia. New England Journal of Medicine, 382, 1199-1207. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[21] Stehle, J., Voirin, N., Barrat, A., Cattuto, C., Colizza, V., Isella, L., Regis, C., Pinton, J.F., Khanafer, N., Van den Broeck, W. and Vanhems, P. (2011) Simulation of an SEIR Infectious Disease Model on the Dynamic Contact Network of Conference Attendees. BMC Medicine, 9, Article No. 87. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]

为你推荐