基于Logistic模型的中国城市群人口分布预测

Population Distribution Forecasting of China’s Megaregions Based on Logistic Model

摘要: 本文选取2006~2018年中国城市群的常住人口数据，并考虑交通基础设施对人口的影响，运用Logistic模型预测了2030、2040年中国城市群人口分布情况。采用定量分析的方法，系统分析了中国城市群地区净流入人口的差异、各地区人口增减变化以及城市群人口集聚度的变化。研究结果表明：2030年至2040年期间，我国城市群人口主要呈现增长趋势，但显著增长区域由京津冀、珠三角、长三角等发展较为成熟的城市群，转向关中、中原、成渝等位于我国中部和西南地区的城市群。中国12个主要城市群人口总量将由2018年的9.92亿增长到2030年10.68亿和2040年10.92亿，相应的人口集聚度也由2018年的3.08，提高到2030年的3.19和2040年的3.53，城市群地区人口集聚态势明显，未来会有更多的人口迁往城市群地区。

Abstract: This paper selected population data of China’s megaregions from 2006 to 2018, and utilized the Logistic model to predict distribution of megareions in 2030 and 2040 considering the impact of transportation infrastructure on the population. Besides, using the method of quantitative analysis, it systematically analyzed the differences in the net influx of population, the changes of population, and the agglomeration degree of population in megaregions. The results show that between 2030 and 2040, the population of megaregions will mainly show a growth trend, but the significant growth areas have shifted from the more mature megaregion such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Pearl River Delta, and Yangtze River Delta to Guanzhong, Central Plains, Chengyu, which are located in the central and southwestern regions. The total population of China’s 12 major megaregions will increase from 992 million in 2018 to 1.068 billion in 2030 and 1.092 billion in 2040. The corresponding population agglomeration index will also increase from 3.08 in 2018 to 3.19 in 2030 and 3.53 in 2040. The trend of population agglomeration is obvious, and more people will move to megaregion areas in the future.