雅砻江梯级水库联合防洪调度及方案优选

Joint Flood Control Dispatching and Scheme Optimization of Cascade Reservoirs on Yalong River

摘要: 为缓解金沙江、雅砻江交汇处攀枝花市的防洪压力，合理利用雅砻江下游梯级水库的防洪库容，构建了以攀枝花站最大洪峰最小为目标的锦屏一级、二滩水库联合防洪调度模型，通过延长错峰历时、减小错峰流量，组合得到20组梯级联合调度方案，采用动态规划法对模型进行了求解；采用一阶季节性自回归模型模拟金沙江干流洪水，计算攀枝花站各方案的防洪风险率，运用熵权法–集对分析法对方案集进行了优选。结果表明：锦屏一级、二滩联合防洪调度可以充分利用两库的防洪库容，有效缓解攀枝花市的防洪压力。

Abstract: In order to alleviate the flood control pressure of Panzhihua City at the junction of the Jinsha River and the Yalong River, and rationally utilize the flood control capacity of the cascade reservoirs on the lower reaches of the Yalong River, a joint flood control operation of Jinping-I and Ertan reservoirs was con-structed with the goal of the smallest flood peak at Panzhihua Station. By extending the peak staggering duration and reducing the peak staggered flow, 20 sets of joint dispatching schemes were obtained, and solved by dynamic programming; the first-order seasonal autoregressive model was used to simulate the flood process in the main stream of the Jinsha River, and flood control risk rate of Panzhihua Station was optimized by the entropy method-set pair analysis method. The results show that the joint flood control operation of Jinping-I and Ertancascade reservoirs can make full use of the flood control capacity of the two reservoirs and effectively relieve the flood control pressure of Panzhihua City.