我国机场和航空公司延误率时空特征及变化规律分析

Analysis on the Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Variation Laws of Delay Rates of Airports and Airlines in My Country

摘要: 从民航航班延误问题出发，收集我国主要机场和航空公司的准点率以及延误时间的信息，先从时间尺度，整理出现相关的数据，并利用统计图呈现，分析我国主要机场和航空公司延误发生的时间变化规律以及航空公司和机场延误特征的关系，并得到相关结论；从空间尺度，整理出现相关的数据，并将该数据实现可视化，分析我国主要机场延误发生的空间变化规律并得到相关结论；根据数据得到的结论和将时间特征和空间特征耦合得到的结论综合，得到一个完整的时空特征；最后基于ARIMA模型，分别选取北京首都机场作为样本进行拟合分析，分别选取2018年与2019年每月准点率与平均延误时间作为样本数据，对航班准点率与平均延误时间进行预测。

Abstract: Starting from the problem of civil aviation flight delays, collect information on the punctuality rate and delay time of China’s major airports and airlines. First, organize the relevant data from the time scale, and use statistical graphs to present and analyze the delays of China’s major airports and airlines in the occurrence of time changes and the relationship between airlines and airport delay characteristics, and related conclusions; From the spatial scale, sort out the relevant data, visualize the data, analyze the spatial changes of the major airport delays in China, and get the relevant conclusion; According to the conclusions obtained from the data and the conclusions obtained by coupling the temporal and spatial characteristics, a complete spatio-temporal feature is obtained; Finally, based on the ARIMA model, the Beijing Capital Airport is selected as a sample for fitting analysis, and 2018 and 2019 are selected respectively, the annual and monthly punctuality rate and average delay time are used as sample data to predict the flight punctuality rate and average delay time.