基于差分自回归移动平均法预测苏格兰鲱鱼的迁移
Prediction of Scottish Herring Migration Based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Method
DOI: 10.12677/MOS.2021.102048, PDF,    科研立项经费支持
作者: 王 睿, 张广运：北京建筑大学环境与能源工程学院，北京；梁一迪：北京建筑大学电气与信息工程学院，北京；白 羽：北京建筑大学理学院，北京；北京建筑大学建筑结构与环境修复功能材料北京市重点实验室，北京；北京建筑大学大数据建模理论与技术研究所，北京
关键词: 鲱鱼；时间序列；差分自回归移动平均法；海洋表面温度；Herring； Time Series； Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Method； Sea Surface Temperature
摘要: 作为苏格兰渔业经济支柱的鲱鱼，正在随着全球变暖而向北迁移。为研究鲱鱼种群分布位置的变化，把北大西洋苏格兰海域划分成28个区域，将过去167年间捕鱼季的海洋表面温度视为时间序列，建立了基于差分自回归移动平均法的海洋表面温度预测模型，得到了未来50年海表温度变化情况。结合鲱鱼的适宜生存条件，分析了鲱鱼的迁移路径及未来最有可能聚集的地点。研究结果为苏格兰地区的渔业经济管理与规划提供了参考和指导。
Abstract: Herring, the mainstay of Scottish fishing economy, is moving north in response to global warming. The Scottish North Atlantic is divided into 28 regions to study the change of herring population distribution. The sea surface temperature (SST) of the fishing season in the past 167 years is taken as a time series and the prediction model of SST based on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method is established to get the SST changes in the next 50 years. The migration routes and the most likely aggregation sites of herring in the future are analyzed based on the op-timal survival temperature of herring. The results provide reference and guidance for fishery economic management and planning in Scotland.
文章引用：王睿, 梁一迪, 张广运, 白羽. 基于差分自回归移动平均法预测苏格兰鲱鱼的迁移[J]. 建模与仿真, 2021, 10(2): 471-480. https://doi.org/10.12677/MOS.2021.102048

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