机场出租车载客决策的建模与仿真

Modeling and Simulation of Airport Taxi Passenger Carrying Decision

摘要: 本文针对机场出租车如何使载客收益最大化这一问题进行建模。首先运用协方差检验，排除出租车数量和想要乘坐出租车返城的乘客数量这两个因素对司机选择的影响。结合出租车定价标准和查阅得到的相关数据，分别建立两种选择下出租车司机载客净收益与等待时间的函数模型，并求得其交点，该交点是影响司机决策的重要因素。最后结合排队论，建立出司机基于观察到的信息判断等待时间的数学模型，进而得到司机的选择策略。最后以深圳宝安机场的真实航班和出租车数据，对模型进行仿真检验。

Abstract: This paper aims at modeling the problem of how to maximize the passenger revenue of airport taxi. Firstly, the covariance test is used to exclude the influence of the number of taxis and the number of passengers who want to take taxis back to the city on the choice of drivers. Combined with the taxi pricing standard and the relevant data obtained by consulting, the function models of the net revenue of carrying passengers and the waiting time of taxi drivers under the two choices are established respectively, and the intersection point is obtained. The intersection point is an important factor affecting the decision of drivers. Finally, combining with the queuing theory, a mathematical model is established for drivers to judge the waiting time based on the observed in-formation, and then the driver’s choice strategy is obtained. Finally, the model is simulated with the real flight and taxi data of Shenzhen Bao’an Airport.