黑龙江丰林自然保护区1958~2016年气温变化特征分析

Variation Characteristics of Temperature in Heilongjiang Fenglin Nature Reserve during 1958~2016

摘要: 基于丰林自然保护区近58年(1958~2016)的平均气温、最低气温和最高气温数据资料，运用时间序列趋势分析方法、Mann-Kendall检验法，分析丰林自然保护区年、季的气温变化特征。结果表明：近60年来丰林自然保护区平均、平均最低、平均最高气温均以冬季增温最明显，其中，平均最低气温冬季增温趋势最显著，每10年平均增温0.87℃，表明丰林自然保护区研究时段内(1958~2016年)的气候增暖贡献最大的是冬季；丰林自然保护区平均气温的年、生长季、春季、冬季均温在20世纪90年代中期为显著升温期，平均最低气温的年、春季、冬季均温“降–升”突变均发生在20世纪80年代初，90年代初进入显著升温期，生长季均温突变发生在本世纪初，平均最高气温的年、生长季、春季均温突变均发生在20世纪80年代初，冬季均温突变期为90年代初，均通过0.01显著性水平检验。综上，丰林自然保护区年及各季一致的增温趋势与东北20世纪50年代末以来的持续升温趋势大背景同步。

Abstract: Based on the mean temperature, the minimum temperature and the maximum temperature of Fenglin Nature Reserve in recent 58 years (1958~2016), the time series trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall method were used to analyze the annual and seasonal temperature variation characteristics of Fenglin Nature Reserve. The results showed that the mean temperature, the minimum mean temperature and the maximum temperature of Fenglin Nature Reserve over the past 60 years have significantly increased in winter, and the minimum temperature in winter showed the most significant trend, with the mean temperature increasing 0.87℃ every 10 years, indicating that winter contributed the most to the climate warming during the research period (1958~2016) in Fenglin Nature Reserve; the annual, growing season, spring and winter mean temperature of the average temperature have increased since the middle of 1990s; The abrupt transition of annual, spring and winter mean temperature “down-rise” occurred in the beginning of 1980s, and entered a significant warming period in the beginning of 1990s. The abrupt transition of growing season mean temperature occurred in the early 2000s. The annual, growing season, and spring mean temperature mutation of the highest temperature all occurred in the beginning of 1980s, while the winter mean temperature mutated in the beginning of 1990s, all of which passed the 0.01 significance level test. To sum up, the consistent annual and quarterly warming trend of Fenglin Nature Reserve is the consistent and synchronous with the continuous warming trend of northeast China since end of 1950s.