长江口太仓岸段险工成因分析——基于水动力数值模拟的研究

Analysis on the Causes of Risk in the Bank Section of Taicang at the Yangtze Estuary—Research on Hydrodynamic Numerical Simulation

摘要: 长江口太仓港的岸线及水深资源对长三角地区的经济发展具有重要的作用，研究该河段的河道变化特征，特别是险工河段的成因具有重要的意义。通过建立太仓岸段精细水动力模型，分别考虑现状条件(2016年)和不受人类活动影响(1997年)的自然条件下，模拟分析了在不同上游来水条件下的水动力变化特征。模拟结果显示在新泾口和荡茜口附近流速增大明显，动力条件增强，意味着码头前沿河床有快速冲刷的危险，监测结果也显示了上述区域的冲刷险情加剧趋势，对码头安全运行带来严重隐患。由此可知，太仓岸段水流变化特征和险工岸段的分布有密切联系。

Abstract: The shoreline and large water depth along the Taicang reach play import role for economic de-velopment of the Yangtze Delta. It is important to study the characteristic of the evolution of the river course along this reach, especially for the formation mechanism of the high-risk reach. The present study proposes a high-resolution hydrodynamic model for the Taicang reach. The hydro-dynamics under various combinations of river discharges and tidal forces have been simulated by considering bathymetry and shoreline in the past (1997) and at present (2016). The results show that the velocity increase near Xinjing River mouth and Dangqian river mouth. This indicates the increase of risks for erosion and clapping in these areas, which causes potential hazard to wharf along the Taicang reach. The monitoring result shows the same trend for those areas as the model results. This reveals the high relationship between the hydrodynamic change and the distribution of the high-risk area along the Taicang reach in the Yangtze Estuary.