基于非线性函数的中国和印度GDP预测分析

Forecast Analysis of China and India’s GDP Based on Nonlinear Functions

摘要: 中国和印度是世界上经济增速最快的两个新兴经济体，都在新的世界地缘政治格局中扮演着越来越重要的角色。中国与印度有着不少相似之处，但也有着不少矛盾和冲突。这两个国家的较量在国际上被称为“龙象之争”，有学者提出，印度即将在经济上超过中国。本文基于时间变化，对中国和印度的经济发展状况进行了基础的非线性关系研究，并做出预测。主要利用了对数函数、增长函数、切比雪夫函数曲线模型，对两国的GDP走势进行了拟合与预测，根据实际情况合理推测出最可能的预测曲线，最终得出了印度短期内无法超越中国的结论，并对此进行了原因探究，进而提出了一些建议。

Abstract: China and India are the two emerging economies with the fastest economic growth in the world, and both are playing an increasingly important role in the new world geopolitical structure. China and India have many similarities, but there are also many contradictions and conflicts. The contest be-tween these two countries is known internationally as the “dragon and elephant contest”. Some scholars proposed that India is about to surpass China in economic terms. Based on time changes, this paper conducts a basic non-linear relationship research on the economic development of China and India, and makes predictions. It mainly uses logarithmic function, growth function, Chebyshev function models to fit and predict the GDP trends of the two countries, and reasonably infer the most likely prediction curve based on actual conditions. And then we draw the conclusion that India cannot surpass China in the short term, and the reasons for it are explored and some suggestions are put forward.