基于GM灰色系统模型的浙江省人均GDP预测

Forecast of Per Capita GDP in Zhejiang Province Based on GM Grey System Model

摘要: 人均GDP是经济学中衡量人均产出的一个有效统计量，它可以在很大程度上度量社会中居民福利状况，能够指导政府部门做出一系列经济决策。本文基于灰色系统理论，根据2000~2019年浙江省人均GDP数据建立GM(1,1)模型与GM(2,1)模型，结果显示模型精度良好。根据建立的模型对浙江省2020~2025年人均GDP进行预测，为浙江省制定经济政策提供理论依据。

Abstract: Per capita GDP is an effective statistic to measure per capita output in economics. It can measure the welfare status of residents in society to a large extent, and can guide government departments to make a series of economic decisions. Based on the grey system theory, this paper establishes the GM(1,1) model and GM(2,1) model based on the per capita GDP data of Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2019, and the results show that the model accuracy is good. According to the established model, the per capita GDP of Zhejiang Province in 2020~2025 is predicted, which provides a theoretical basis for formulating economic policies in Zhejiang Province.