人口年龄结构对进口贸易的影响研究

The Influence of Population Age Structure on Import Trade

摘要: 本文将进口商品视为中间品，利用我国2005~2017年31个省市的数据，分别对全国、分区域层次的样本数据，采用固定效应模型进行实证分析。全国样本实证结果显示，老年抚养比可显著增加进口，少儿抚养比则显著抑制进口。此外，对东、中、西三大区域的研究发现，各个区域的老少抚养比与进口贸易的关系与全国数据样本分析结果大致相同，但存在地区差异。具体来说，三大区域的老年抚养比对进口贸易都存在比较显著的正向影响，少儿抚养比对进口贸易都存在比较显著的负向影响，老少抚养比对进口贸易的影响从大到小排序为东部、中部、西部。此外，实际投资对进口贸易也存在负向影响，但该影响只在东部省市显著。

Abstract: This paper regards imported goods as intermediate goods, and uses the data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2017 to make an empirical analysis on the sample data of national and sub-regional levels by using the fixed effect model. The empirical results of national samples show that the dependency ratio for the elderly can significantly increase imports, while the dependency ratio for children can significantly inhibit imports. In addition, the study of east, middle and west regions shows that the relationship between dependency ratio and import trade in each region is roughly the same as that of national data sample analysis, but there are regional differences. Spe-cifically, the elderly dependency ratio has a significant positive impact on import trade in the three regions, while the children dependency ratio has a significant negative impact on import trade. The impact of the elderly dependency ratio on import trade from large to small is ranked as eastern, central and western. In addition, real investment also has a negative impact on import trade, but the impact is only significant in the eastern provinces.