基于蒙特卡罗模拟技术的电力工程施工招投标风险管理研究

Research on Risk Management of Power Engineering Construction Bidding Based on Monte Carlo Simulation Technology

摘要: 加强招投标管理，控制工程造价，保证工程建设质量是电网工程建设的重要环节。针对现阶段电力系统输变电工程采用工程量清单计价方式进行公开招标，投标报价环节是影响招投标活动的关键风险的现状，本文基于对电力工程各项结算费用的分析以及工程造价中已知综合单价组成要素的概率分布，采用蒙特卡罗技术来进行工程量清单子目综合单价的模拟预测，实现工程造价环节的多参数分析、造价动态控制、信息预测、组成费用相关性考虑以及综合单价范围确定等功能。一方面为评标提供依据，另一方面降低施工招投标过程中的损失，有效控制工程造价，达到电力工程施工招投标风险管理的目的。

Abstract: Strengthening the management of bidding, controlling the project cost, and ensuring the quality of the project are important links in the construction of power grid projects. In view of the current situation that the power transmission and transformation project of the power system adopts the bill of quantities pricing method for public bidding. The bidding quotation link is the current status of the key risk affecting the bidding activities. Based on the analysis of the various settlement costs of power projects and the probability distribution of the known comprehensive unit price components in the project cost, this paper uses Monte Carlo technology to simulate and predict the comprehensive unit price of the bill of quantities sub-items, and realize the multi-parameters of the project cost link. Based on the analysis of the various settlement costs of the power project and the probability distribution of the known comprehensive unit price components in the project cost, this paper uses Monte Carlo technology to simulate and predict the comprehensive unit price of the bill of quantities. It can also realize the functions of multi-parameter analysis of the project cost link, dynamic cost control, information prediction, consideration of the cost correlation, and the determination of the comprehensive unit price range. On the one hand, it provides a basis for bid evaluation; on the other hand, it reduces losses in the construction bidding process, effectively controls the project cost, and achieves the purpose of risk management of power engineering construction bidding.