几类预测模型对我国酒店行业的发展趋势分析

Analysis of the Development Trend of China’s Hotel Industry Based on Several Kinds of Prediction Models

摘要: 本文以2015年至2019年我国酒店行业中的连锁酒店数量、酒店业客房数量、连锁酒店客房数量占全国酒店数量的比重为数据基础，分别建立单变量灰色预测模型、多项式趋势曲线模型和指数曲线模型。计算结果表明三种预测模型都能够得到比较精确的数值结果。基于此，本文进一步给出了2020年至2023年中国的连锁酒店数量、酒店业客房数量、连锁酒店客房数量占全国酒店数量的比重，计算结果可为我国酒店行业决策者提供参考。

Abstract: Based on the data of the number of chain hotels, the number of hotel rooms and the proportion of chain hotel rooms in the number of hotels in China from the year of 2015 to 2019, this paper establishes a single variable grey prediction model, a polynomial trend model and an exponential curve model. The computational results show that the three prediction models can get accurate numerical results. Based on this result, this paper further gives the number of chain hotels, the number of hotel rooms, and the proportion of chain hotel rooms in the number of hotels in China from 2020 to 2023. The calculation results can provide reference for the decision makers of China’s hotel industry.