模型平均对于糖尿病的预测

Prediction of Diabetes by the Model Average

摘要: 糖尿病导致高血压、血脂紊乱、心脑血管等疾病的主要原因，本文使用印度皮马女性有关糖尿病的数据集，使用基于逻辑回归的模型平均方法预测皮马女性五年内是否会患糖尿病。在选择模型时，经查阅资料，固定了口服葡萄糖耐量试验2小时后的血浆葡萄糖浓度、餐后2小时的血清胰岛素、糖尿病遗传函数三个指标进行建模，采用Mallows权重选择准则。实验结果表明模型平均相较于简单地逻辑回归方法预测误差率较低，效果较好。

Abstract: Diabetes is the main cause of hypertension, dyslipidemia, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. In this paper, we use the data set of Pima women in India about diabetes, and use the model averaging method based on logistic regression to predict whether Pima women will have diabetes in five years. In the selection of model, after consulting the data, fixed the oral glucose tolerance test 2 hours after the plasma glucose concentration, postprandial 2 hours of serum insulin, diabetes genetic function three indicators for modeling, using Mallows weight selection criteria. The experimental results show that the prediction error rate of the model average is lower than that of the simple logistic regression method, and the effect is better.