皖北地区水文要素演变规律分析

Analysis on the Dynamic Evolution Law of Hydrological Elements in Northern Anhui

摘要: 进入21世纪以来，随着全球气候变暖，各区域的降水特征也随之发生了不同的变化响应。在此背景拿下，深入研究区域气候变化的特征和机制，进而预测其未来降水变化趋势，是全球及区域气候变化的重要研究内容。利用皖北地区年的逐日降水量资料，采用线性回归法、累计距平法等分析了近降水趋势及变化特征。相关研究结果表明，皖北地区夏季和冬季降水有显著的增加趋势，春季、秋季和年均降水量的变化趋势不明显，全区年均降水量有显著减小趋势，但是局部暴雨大雨天数较之前有所增加。皖北地区降水天数减少，强降水略有增加，降水有集中化趋势，其中上个世纪90年代中期以后，降水趋势明显，不确定性因素增加，导致旱涝灾害发生可能性增加，会对当地农业生产带来不利影响。

Abstract: Since the 21st century, with the global climate warming, the regional characteristics of precipita-tion with different changes have taken place in the response. In this background, in-depth study of the characteristics of regional climate change and mechanism, and then predict the future trend of precipitation change, which is an important content of global and regional climate change. Using the daily precipitation data of northern Anhui, using the linear regression method, the cumulative anomaly method etc. to analyze the trend of recent precipitation and its change characteristics, and the related research results showed that the precipitation in summer and winter in northern Anhui had a significant increasing trend, while the change trend of spring, autumn and annual average precipitation was not obvious, and the annual average precipitation in the whole region had a significant decreasing trend, but the number of days of local heavy rain increased compared with that before. In northern Anhui, the precipitation days decreased, the heavy precipitation increased slightly, and the precipitation had a centralized trend. After the mid-1990s, the precipitation trend was obvious, and the uncertainty factors increased, which led to the increase of the possibility of drought and flood disasters, which would bring adverse effects on the local agricultural production.