贵州东部一次区域性暴雨过程成因分析

Cause Analysis of a Regional Rainstorm in the Eastern of Guizhou

摘要: 利用常规观测资料、区域自动站及卫星云图等分析资料，对贵州东部出现的一次区域性暴雨天气过程成因进行诊断分析，并用欧洲中心模式预报(以下简称EC)与实况对比分析。结果表明：此次暴雨过程在副高控制华南–江南东部，贵州处于副高北侧，低层有低涡切变活动，配合高空槽和南支槽及地面的辐合线共同影响，造成的强降水天气。EC模式预报的偏南急流增强，低涡切变位置偏北，但模式预报对此次过程有一定的指导作用。

Abstract: Based on the conventional observation data, regional automatic weather stations and satellite cloud images, the causes of a regional rainstorm in the Eastern of Guizhouis are analyzed, and the data of European center are compared with the actual situation. The results show that: the rainstorm process in the Eastern of Guizhou is located in the north side of the subtropical high; the sub-tropical high controls the South China to the east of Changjiang; the low-level vortex shear activities, combined with the high-level trough and the South Branch trough and the convergence line of the ground, result in the heavy rainfall weather. The southerly jet of European center model is strengthened and the shear position of vortex is northward, but the model prediction has a certain guiding role for this process.