基于混合时间序列的电子产品可靠性预测方法研究

Research on Reliability Prediction Method of Electronic Products Based on Mixed Time Series

摘要: 针对工程实际中大多数电子产品具有多个性能特征参数的特点，本文以解决传统基于单一性能参数退化数据可靠性预测不够准确，且基于联合概率密度法的多性能退化参数建模复杂、难以计算的难题，从多元预测的角度，提出基于混合时间序列的方法对多性能退化参数数据进行可靠性建模方法，并通过仿真实例验证了方法的有效性。

Abstract: In view of the fact that most electronic products have multiple performance characteristic param-eters in engineering practice, to solve the problems that the traditional reliability prediction based on single performance parameter degradation data is not accurate enough, and the modeling of multi-performance degradation parameters based on joint probability density method is complex and difficult to calculate, this paper proposes a reliability modeling method for multi-performance degradation parameter data based on mixed time series from the perspective of multi-prediction, and verifies the effectiveness of the method through simulation examples.