基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的上海市老年福利机构建设预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of the Construction of Shanghai Elderly Welfare Institutions Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 通过截取2019年上海市统计局发布的《上海统计年鉴》对2009年~2018年上海市老年福利机构数量、床位数、年末在院人数、老人60周岁以上人数变化趋势进行预测分析，通过构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对上海市老年福利机构未来十年的概况分析。结果中发现2019年~2028年上海市老年福利机构数量、床位数、年末在院人数、老人60周岁以上人数继续呈稳步上升趋势，其中床位数将预测在2028年突破180,000张、年末在院人数也将在2024年突破100,000人，并在2028年预计达到119,879人；在预测的十年中，机构数、床位数、年末在院人数以及其中老人数的平均增长率较前十年均有所放缓，此外床位利用率虽然有提高的趋势，但是幅度并不大，并且平均床位利用率稳定在64.330%。为了上海市老年福利机构的健康发展以及持续为老人提高必要的养老服务，床位利用率不高的问题需要做出调整。

Abstract: By means of the Shanghai Statistical Yearbook published by the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics in 2019, this paper analyzes the changing trend of the number of elderly welfare institutions, the number of beds, the number of people in hospital at the end of the year and the number of the elderly over 60 years old in Shanghai from 2009 to 2018, based on the grey GM(1,1) prediction model, this paper analyzes the general situation of Shanghai Elderly Welfare organizations in the next ten years. The results showed that from 2019 to 2028, the number of elderly welfare institutions, the number of beds, the number of people in hospital at the end of the year, and the number of people over the age of 60 in 2028 would continue to rise steadily; the number of beds is expected to top 180,000 by 2028, 100,000 by 2024, and 119,879 by 2028; the average growth rates of number of institutions, number of beds, number of people in hospital at the end of the year and the number of elderly among them are slower than those in the previous decade; and the average bed utilization rate is stable at 64.330%. For the healthy development of Shanghai elderly welfare institutions and the continuous improvement of the necessary services for the elderly, the problem of low utilization rate of beds needs to be adjusted.