中国东部近地面风速与气温气候特征研究

Research on Climate Characteristics between Near-Ground Wind Speed and Temperature in Eastern China

摘要: 基于1951~2014年中国地面台站逐日观测资料，利用线性倾向估计、M-K突变检验和EOF分解等方法对我国东部(105˚E以东)近地面风速和气温的气候特征进行了分析。结果表明：1) 年平均和四季风速在空间上表现出北高南低、沿海大内陆小的特征，而气温表现出南暖北冷的特征。2) 年平均、春、夏、秋和冬季风速均为减弱趋势，每10a下降0.13 m/s、0.15 m/s、0.09 m/s、0.12 m/s和0.15 m/s，而气温则每10a上升0.21℃、0.27℃、0.13℃、0.19℃和2.70℃。3) 近地面风速和气温在20世纪90年代发生了突变，突变前中国东部北(南)方大部分区域风速呈增长(减弱)趋势，突变后则相反；而突变前气温减弱区域主要位于南方，突变后出现减弱趋势的区域仅出现在中国东北。EOF分解第一模态显示突变前后中国东部近地面风速和温度的空间特征保持一致，但突变前风速(温度)偏大(低)，突变后风速(温度)偏小(高)；EOF分解第二模态显示突变前后风速和温度的空间特征差异显著，但时间转折与突变点不对应一致。

Abstract: Based on daily observation data of China meteorological stations from 1951~2014, this paper analyzed the climate characteristics of near-ground wind speed and temperature in eastern China (east of 105˚E) and the characters before and after mutations by linear tendency, M-K test and Empirical Orthogonal function. The results indicate that: 1) The average annual and four seasons wind speed show the characteristics of large in the north and the coastal area, but small in the south inland, and the temperature is warm in south but cold in the north. 2) In time series, the year, spring, summer, autumn and winter winds decreased 0.13 m/s, 0.15 m/s, 0.09 m/s, 0.12 m/s and 0.15 m/s per 10a and 0.21˚C, 0.27˚C, 0.13˚C, 0.19˚C and 2.70˚C per 10a. 3) The near-ground wind speed and temperature changed abruptly in the 1990s, with the wind speed increasing (weakening) in most of the northern (southern) areas of eastern China before the abrupt change, and the opposite after the abrupt change; while the weakening areas of temperature before the abrupt change were mainly located in the south, and the weakening areas after the abrupt change were only found in north-eastern China. EOF first mode shows the consistent spatial characteristics of the near-ground wind speed and temperature in eastern China before and after the mutation, but the pre-mutation wind speed (temperature) is large (low), and the post-mutation wind speed (temperature) is low (high); EOF second mode shows significant spatial differences in wind speed and temperature before and after the mutation, but the time transition does not correspond with the mutation point.