存款保险基金保费规模变动问题研究——基于AD-AS模型分析视角

Study on the Problem of Deposit Insurance Fund Premium Scale Fluctuation—From the Perspective of AD-AS Model Analysis

摘要: 存款保险基金制度是构建政府金融安全网的重要形式之一，在预防银行业挤兑危机中发挥着重要作用，而存款保险基金制度的有效运行，离不开设置满足风险特征与赔付分布的保费规模。为厘清基金规模的结构变化与影响效应，通过参考Keynes理论思想构建AD-AS基金规模研究模型，解释影响存款保险基金规模变动的相关变量。模型结果表明：边际保险倾向与边际支出倾向对双周期规模变动产生不同的影响效应，溢出效应的存在使部分变量与目标量产生负向关系，通过规范分析可以为基金运营政策调整提供建议，从而提高宏观调控政策的精确度与针对性。

Abstract: The deposit insurance fund system is one of the important forms of constructing the government financial safety net, which plays an important role in the prevention of bank run crisis. The effective operation of the deposit insurance fund system is inseparable from the setting of the premium scale that meets the risk characteristics and compensation distribution. In order to clarify the structural change and influence effect of the fund size, the AD-AS fund size research model was built by referring to Keynes theory to explain the relevant variables affecting the change of the deposit insurance fund size. The results of the model showed that: Marginal insurance propensity and marginal expenditure propensity have different effects on the change of the scale of the double cycle. The existence of spillover effect makes some variables have negative relationship with target variables. Through normative analysis, suggestions can be provided for the adjustment of fund operation policies, so as to improve the precision and pertinence of macro-control policies.