山东北部沿海风电场高影响气象条件分析

Analysis of High Impact Meteorological Conditions of Coastal Wind Farms in Northern Shandong

摘要: 在对山东北部沿海45个国家气象站近70年来热带气旋样本统计分析基础之上，结合近11年闪电定位仪资料，分析了影响山东北部沿海地区的热带气旋、沿海大风和闪电的时空分布规律及其可能对该区域风电场造成的影响。结果表明：影响该区域的热带气旋中，有76.6%的热带气旋可以给风电场带来经济效益；需要进行适当防御不会造成损失的热带气旋占比为18.3%；可能给风电场带来破坏的热带气旋占比为5.1%。北部沿海及其半岛内陆的大部分地区，其50年一遇最大风速和极大风速符合国家III型风机安全运行等级标准。山东北部沿海地区年平均雷暴日数呈西多东少分布特征，年平均闪电密度呈西高东低的分布特征，闪电高值区主要集中在滨州和东营地区。

Abstract: Based on the statistical analysis of tropical cyclone samples from 45 national meteorological stations along the northern coast of Shandong Province in recent 70 years, combined with lightning locator data in recent 11 years, the temporal and spatial distribution laws of tropical cyclones, coastal winds and lightning affecting the northern coast of Shandong Province and their possible impact on wind farms in this area are analyzed. The results show that 76.6% of the tropical cyclones affecting the region can bring economic benefits to the wind farm; the proportion of tropical cyclones that need proper defense and will not cause losses is 18.3%; tropical cyclones that may cause damage to wind farms account for 5.1%. In most areas along the northern coast and inland of the peninsula, the maximum wind speed and maximum wind speed once in 50 years meet the national standard for safe operation level of type III fan. The annual average thunderstorm days in the coastal area of northern Shandong are more in the West and less in the East, and the annual average lightning density is higher in the West and lower in the East. The high lightning value areas are mainly concentrated in Binzhou and Dongying areas.