20和21世纪初青岛地区气温和降水的变化特征对比

Comparison of Climate Change of Precipitation and Temperature in Qingdao in the Early 20th and Early 21st Century

摘要: 本文利用德占时期青岛观象台1899~1911年和青岛气象台1999~2011年气温和降水的月平均观测资料，对比分析了20世纪初和21世纪初青岛气候的百年变化特征。结果表明，青岛地区的年平均气温在20世纪初和21世纪初时分别为12.5℃和13.2℃，一百年里升温了0.7℃，比全球平均变暖的幅度略低，远低于中国气温百年来的升温幅度；但青岛的升温具有明显的季节性差异，在冬季和夏季，21世纪初青岛的平均气温反而低于20世纪初的气温值，这与全球百年来的变暖规律不一致，只有在春、秋过渡季节才体现出青岛气温与全球变暖趋势一致的特征；21世纪初气温的年际变率在冷季较强暖季较弱，而20世纪初则正好相反。青岛的气候表现为雨热同季的特征，但年平均降水量在百年后仅略有增加；青岛雨季的高峰期从20世纪的7月推迟到21世纪的8月，表明相比于20世纪初，21世纪初青岛的8月更容易出现高温高湿的“桑拿”天气；降水的百年变化显示出5月和9月降水量增多，10月降水量减少，表明百年后青岛的雨季开始和结束时间均有所提前，降雨峰值时间推迟，且春季和初秋的气候变得更暖更湿，10月以后的秋季则变得更暖更干。

Abstract: Based on the monthly averaged observational data of temperature and precipitation at Qingdao Observatory during German occupation period from 1899 to 1911 and at Qingdao Meteorological Observatory from 1999 to 2011, this paper compared and analyzed the climate change in Qingdao in the early 20th century (20C) and the early 21st century (21C). The results show that the annual averaged temperature in Qingdao in the early 20C and 21C was 12.5 degrees Celsius and 13.2 degrees Celsius respectively. Qingdao’s temperature has risen 0.7 degrees Celsius in 100 years, just slightly lower than the rate of global warming, and much lower than the temperature rising rate in China in the past 100 years. However, the temperature rising in Qingdao has obvious seasonal differences. In winter and summer, the Qingdao’s temperature in the early 21C is lower than that in the early 20C, which is inconsistent with the global warming in the past century. Only in the transitional seasons of spring and autumn can the temperature in Qingdao be consistent with the global warming trend. The interannual variability of temperature in the early 21C was stronger in the cold season and weaker in the warm season than that in the early 20C. The climate of Qingdao is charac-terized by rainy-hot period in the same season, but the annual averaged precipitation only increases slightly after 100 years. The peak of rainy season in Qingdao was postponed from July in the early 20C to August in the early 21st century, implying that more “sauna” weather with high temperature and humidity in August would occur in the early 21C than that in the early 20C compared with the temperature variation. The centennial variation of precipitation shows an increasing in May and September, and a decreasing in October, indicating that the beginning and ending time of rainy season in Qingdao tends to be earlier, and the peak time of rainfall tends to be later. In addition, the climate in spring and early autumn has become warmer and wetter, and that in autumn after October has become warmer and drier after 100 years.