基于中国A股上市公司的隧道挖掘研究

Research on Tunnel Excavation Based on China’s A-Share Listed Companies

摘要: 前人研究发现大股东会通过非正常关联交易、披露虚假财务信息等隧道挖掘手段侵占中小股东利益。本文根据2009~2019年度A股上市公司的面板数据，基于Cscore财务造假预测模型，以预计业绩以及预计业绩与是否亏损、是否再融资、股市下行和是否财务造假之间的交互项为核心解释变量构建隧道挖掘回归模型，研究隧道挖掘作用机制并通过实证分析隧道挖掘与财务造假事前风险Cscore的关联性。研究结果表明：总体来看，上市公司的预计业绩与实际业绩正相关，隧道挖掘与财务造假事前风险Cscore正相关，公司预计业绩越高，隧道挖掘越显著。就单个公司而言，隧道挖掘与再融资、股市下行正相关，与发生亏损负相关；如果公司被证监会认定为财务造假，其相应的隧道挖掘强度更高。本文建立的隧道挖掘模型具有良好的稳健性，研究结果能够为证监会提早发现财务造假公司，维护广大投资者切身利益提供数据参考和实证依据。

Abstract: Previous studies have found that controlling shareholders were often accused of expropriating in-terests of minority shareholders by tunneling, such as abnormal related party transactions and fi-nancial manipulation, etc. Based on the Cscore financial fraud prediction model, the predicted performance and the interaction terms between the predicted performance and whether it is a loss, whether to refinance, whether the stock market is down, and whether financial fraud are used as core explanatory variables to construct a tunneling regression model, in order to study the mechanism of tunneling and empirically analyze the relationship between tunneling and the pre-risk Cscore of financial fraud. The research results show that: Overall, the predicted performance of listed companies is positively correlated with actual performance, and tunneling is positively correlated with the pre-risk Cscore of financial fraud. The higher the company’s predicted performance, the more significant the tunneling. As far as a single company is concerned, tunneling is positively correlated with refinancing and the stock market downturn, and negatively correlated with the occurrence of losses; if the company is identified as financial fraud by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the corresponding tunneling intensity is higher. The tunneling model established in this paper has good robustness, and the research results can provide data reference and empirical evidence for the early detection of financial fraud companies by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and safeguard the vital interests of investors.