中国极端不利气象条件的长期演变及特征研究
Long-Term Evolution and Characteristics of Extreme Air Pollution Meteorological Events in China
DOI: 10.12677/CCRL.2021.105064, PDF,   
作者: 宋玉强：大连市气象台，辽宁 大连；张轶雯：天津智慧泉科技发展有限公司，天津；邵 旻：南京师范大学环境学院，江苏 南京
关键词: 极端不利气象条件；逆温；大气静稳；热浪；Extreme Air Pollution Meteorological Conditions； Temperature Inversion； Atmospheric Static Stability； Heat Wave
摘要: 本文利用1960~2019年的全球气候再分析数据对中国各地区典型极端不利气象条件(逆温、大气静稳和热浪)的气候演变过程进行分析。结果表明，中国各地区极端不利气象条件发生概率均显著增长，并具有显著的季节性和空间性特征。其中，逆温、大气静稳和热浪发生频率在1990~2019年较1960~1989平均升高16.3 ± 2.2%、16.5 ± 1.0%、69.9 ± 4.8%。逆温频率的增加主要位于中国南部和内蒙古地区，气候变化导致的高空蒸散增加和近地面蒸发增加是这一变化的重要原因。大气静稳和热浪频率的增加主要位于京津冀和中国北部地区。大气静稳发生频率的增加主要受削弱的东亚季风和城市化影响。热浪发生频率增加最明显，主要受气候变化、城市化和工业发展影响。并且，不同定义下热浪的持续时间在近30年都有所增加，全国平均增加0.35天。不同定义下热浪强度的演变还体现了冬暖夏冷、北暖南冷的特征。本文旨在通过研究为预测未来极端不利气象条件对空气质量的影响提供基础和依据。
Abstract: Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1960 to 2019, the climate evolution of extreme air pollution meteorological events (temperature inversion, atmospheric static stability and heat wave) under different definitions and in different regions of China are analyzed in this article. The results show that there is an obvious increasing trend of extreme air pollution meteorological events in all regions of China, and there are obvious seasonal and spatial differences. From 1990 to 2019, the frequency of temperature inversion, atmospheric static stability and heat wave increased by 16.3 ± 2.2%, 16.5 ± 1.0% and 69.9 ± 4.8% from 1960 to 1989. The increased frequency of temperature inversion is mainly in southern China and Inner Mongolia. The increase of upper air evapotranspiration and surface evaporation caused by climate change are the important reasons for this change. The increased frequency of atmospheric static stability and heat wave is mainly in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and northern China. The former is mainly affected by the weakened East Asian monsoon and urbanization. The latter increases most obviously, which is mainly affected by climate change, urbanization and industrial development. Moreover, the duration of heat wave under different definitions has increased in the past 30 years, with an average increase of 0.35 days in the whole country. The evolution of different definitions of heat wave intensity also reflects the characteristics of warm winter, cold summer, warm north and cold south. This study provides the foundation and basis for the potential impact of extreme air pollution meteorological events on air quality in the future.
文章引用：宋玉强, 张轶雯, 邵旻. 中国极端不利气象条件的长期演变及特征研究[J]. 气候变化研究快报, 2021, 10(5): 538-551. https://doi.org/10.12677/CCRL.2021.105064

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