黔东南蓝莓花期灰莓病重度发生年低温高湿天气成因分析

Analysis on the Causes of Severe Occurrence of Blueberry Disease during Flowering in Qi-andongnan

摘要: 为准确优质地为黔东南蓝莓花期灰霉病的防治提供中短期天气预报服务，用NCEP 1˚ × 1˚再分析资料，从环流形势、影响系统和水汽、热力、动力特征入手，对2014年、2016年和2019年4月黔东南蓝莓花期灰霉病重度发生年持续阴雨低温高湿天气成因进行综合分析。得出：中高纬度长时间维持引导弱冷空气南下的有利环流形势，中低纬西北太平洋副热高压偏西偏强与700 hPa西南风急流的长时间稳定维持，为连阴雨天气提供了大尺度天气背景和持续稳定的水汽、热力条件；高原上和孟加拉湾多波动东移，850 hPa切变线长时间维持，地面弱冷空气不断补充或渗透南下，使西部或中部静止锋长时间维持、活跃，为连阴雨天气提供了持续的动力抬升条件，2014年、2016年和2019年4月黔东南蓝莓花期降水日数和连续降水日数异常偏多、气温偏低、相对湿度持续偏大，是导致灰霉病重度发生和流行的主要原因。持续降雨期间，水汽和动力辐合主要集中在850 hPa以下，850 hPa贵州西部和中南部地区维持有明显的θ_se能量锋区。

Abstract: In order to provide accurate and high-quality weather forecast services for the prevention and control of blueberry blooming gray mold in Qiandongnan, we used NCEP 1˚ × 1˚ to reanalyze the data, starting from the circulation situation, the influence system, and the characteristics of water vapor, heat and power. Comprehensively analyze the causes of the continuous rainy, low-temperature, and high-humidity weather in the blueberry blooming stage of Qiandongnan in April of 2014, 2016 and 2019. It is concluded that the favorable circulation situation that guides weak cold air to the south has been maintained for a long time in the middle and high latitudes, and the strong westward and westward subthermal high of the northwest Pacific in the middle and low latitudes and the 700 hPa southwesterly jet are maintained for a long time, providing large-scale weather for continuous rainy weather. Background and continuous and stable water vapor and thermal conditions; the plateau and the Bay of Bengal move eastward with many fluctuations, the 850 hPa shear line is maintained for a long time, and the weak cold air on the ground is constantly supplemented or infiltrated southward, so that the western or central static front is maintained and active for a long time. Continuous rainy weather provides continuous dynamic uplifting conditions. In April of 2014, 2016 and 2019, the number of precipitation days and continuous precipitation days of blueberry blooming in Qiandongnan was abnormally high, the temperature was low, and the relative humidity continued to be high, which caused Botrytis cinerea, the main reason for severe occurrence and epidemic. During the continuous rainfall period, the water vapor and power convergence are mainly concentrated below 850 hPa. At 850 hPa, the western and central-southern areas of Guizhou maintain a clear θ_se energy front.