北京市“老漂族”社会适应研究——基于GM(1,1)模型

Research on the Social Adaptation of the “Old Drifters” in Beijing—Based on GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 北京市的“老漂族”规模日渐增大，这一群体的社会适应问题不只是影响他们自身，也影响着社会的和谐，需要引起重视。本文构建GM(1,1)模型，根据历年数据对北京市“老漂族”数量进行预测，结果显示未来10年北京市“老漂族”数量会持续增长。“老漂族”的社会适应在个体、家庭、社区、政府四个层面皆存在问题，本文运用生态系统理论、社会支持理论、社会融合理论的知识，分析“老漂族”在各层面遭遇的困境，明确各主体的目标，制定合适的方案，科学有效的促进北京市“老漂族”的社会适应。

Abstract: The scale of the “old drifters” in Beijing is increasing day by day. The problem of the social adaptation of this group not only affects themselves, but also affects the harmony of the society, which requires attention. This paper constructs GM(1,1) model to predict the number of the “old drifters” in Beijing based on historical data. The results show that the number of the “old drifters” in Beijing will continue to grow in the next 10 years. The social adaptation of the “old drifters” has problems at the four levels in individual, family, community, and government. This paper uses the knowledge of ecosystem theory, social support theory, and social integration theory to analyze the difficulties encountered by the “old drifters” at various levels, clarify the goals of each subject, formulate appropriate plans, and promote the social adaptation of the “old drifters” scientifically and effectively in Beijing.