云南省烟草商业系统卷烟销量影响因素分析

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Cigarette Sales in Yunnan Tobacco Commercial System

摘要: 本文以云南省烟草商业系统卷烟销量为研究对象，利用2008~2018年的数据，构建基于主成分分析和多元线性回归的统计模型，定量分析云南省地区生产总值、社会消费品零售总额、居民可支配收入、人口、单箱销售收入和税利等因素对卷烟销量的影响，为云南省卷烟经济调控提供决策依据。

Abstract: Taking the cigarette sales of Yunnan tobacco commercial system as the research object, using the data from 2008 to 2018, this paper constructs a statistical model based on principal component analysis and multiple linear regression to quantitatively analyze the impact of regional GDP, total retail sales of social consumer goods, residents’ disposable income, population, single box sales revenue and tax profit on cigarette sales in Yunnan Province. It provides decision-making basis for cigarette economic regulation in Yunnan Province.