城镇化水平对房地产价格的影响研究——以珠江三角洲为例

Research on the Impact of Urbanization Level on Real Estate Prices—Taking the Pearl River Delta as an Example

摘要: 为研究珠三角地区城镇化对房价的影响，厘清作用机制，本研究采用面板模型对珠三角9个城市2004~2019年数据进行深入研究，从供给和需求两个角度展开讨论，针对本文长面板数据，考虑扰动项可能存在的异方差与自相关，从而确定这些潜在因素的影响，选择OLS+面板校正标准误差和全面FGLS估计方法进行估计。研究发现珠三角地区城镇化对房价影响为正，但不显著，理论上，城镇人口规模增加，带动住房需求的增加，房价随之上涨，但有效住房需求仍需进一步协商，珠三角地区已经处于较高的城镇化水平，相较而言，城镇化率高的地方，房地产市场发展更好，各个城市之间的差距扩大，城市群内部房地产市场发展呈现不平衡状态。

Abstract: In order to study the impact of urbanization on housing prices in the Pearl River Delta region and clarify the mechanism of action, this study uses a panel model to conduct in-depth research on the data of 9 cities in the Pearl River Delta from 2004 to 2019, discusses from the perspectives of supply and demand, focuses on the long panel data of this article, and considers the possible heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of the disturbance term, so as to determine the influence of these potential factors, choose OLS+ panel correction standard error and comprehensive FGLS estimation method to estimate. The study found that urbanization in the Pearl River Delta has a positive but not significant impact on housing prices. Theoretically, the increase in the size of the urban population will lead to an increase in housing demand, and housing prices will rise accordingly. However, the effective housing demand still needs further discussion. The Pearl River Delta is already in a higher level of urbanization. In comparison, places with a high urbanization rate have a better development of the real estate market. The gap between cities has widened, and the development of the real estate market within urban agglomerations is in a state of imbalance.