包容性生育政策下生育意愿的影响因素研究——基于CGSS2017数据的实证分析

The Research on the Influencing Factors of Fertility Intention under the Inclusive Fertility Policy—Based on the Empirical Analysis of CGSS2017 Data

摘要: 自2013年起我国开始实施“单独二孩”政策至2021年提出“三孩政策”，我国的生育政策逐渐向包容性方向发展，充分尊重生育决策主体的自主性。在不断增强包容性的生育政策下，育龄女性个体的生育意愿对生育行为的发生则起决定性作用。本文基于2017年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据，从客观因素和主观因素两方面对育龄女性生育意愿的影响进行实证分析，研究发现个体的主观感知对生育意愿具有显著的正向作用，而客观的社会经济因素则对生育意愿没有显著的影响作用，但是可以进一步促进主观感知对生育意愿的正向影响，并根据这一实证结果得出相关的政策启示。

Abstract: Since 2013, China began to implement the policy of “two children alone” to propose the policy of “three children” in 2021. China’s fertility policy has gradually developed towards an inclusive direction, fully respecting the autonomy of the subject of fertility decision. Under the increasingly inclusive fertility policy, the reproductive willingness of women of childbearing age plays a decisive role in the occurrence of reproductive behavior. This article, based on 2017 Chinese general social survey (CGSS) data, from two aspects of objective and subjective factors, empirically analyzes the effects of childbearing willing of women in childbearing age, the study found that the individual subjective perception has significant positive effect on fertility intentions, and objective perception of social and economic factors is that there was no significant effect on fertility intentions. However, it can further promote the positive impact of subjective perception on fertility intention, and draw relevant policy implications according to this empirical result.