惠水县近50a气温变化特征分析

Analysis on Characteristics of Temperature Variation in Huishui County in Recent 50 Years

摘要: 本文通过利用线性回归、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和小波周期变化等方法分析惠水县近50 a的气温数据，结果表明：惠水县近50 a来的气温经历了冷–暖的变化，大致表现为前期偏冷，后期偏暖这样一个波动形态，从90年代后期开始气温升温趋势逐渐显著；通过Mann-Kendall法检验得出惠水县的气温突变出现在1998年，此后惠水县平均气温的升温速率明显加快；惠水县近50 a来，四季当中春季温差最大，气温升温速率也最快，气温倾斜率为0.381℃/10a；从70年代至今惠水县气温的年际变化周期为准28 a，体现出当地气温的变化有着强而明显的周期性。

Abstract: This paper uses linear regression, Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet periodic change methods to analyze the temperature data of Huishui County in recent 50 years. The results are indicated as follows: the temperature in Huishui County has experienced a change from cold to warm in recent 50 years, roughly manifested as a wave form of cold in the early period and warm in the later period; since the late 1990s, the temperature rise trend has gradually become significant. Through the Mann-Kendall method, it is found that the sudden temperature change in Huishui County occurred in 1998. Since then, the average temperature in Huishui County has increased significantly. In the past 50 years in Huishui County, the temperature difference in spring is the biggest among the four seasons, the temperature rises at the fastest rate, and the temperature gradient rate is 0.381˚C/10a. The interannual variation period of temperature in Huishui County from the 1970s to the present is 28 a, which reflects the strong and obvious periodicity of local temperature variations.