基于随机森林的保险费用影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Insurance Expenses Based on Random Forest

摘要: 随着人们的生活节奏越来越快，一部分人由于工作性质、工作强度的缘故，身心健康面临着重大挑战。吸烟、年龄上升，都会增加自身健康风险，而保险具有对冲这种风险的作用，因此购买保险成为人们抵消未来风险的一种手段。保险费用作为我们取得对未来的保障的费用，因此对保险费预测，不仅有助于我们认识不确定的未来，协助我们对未来的工作进行规划，而且有助于保险人对自己理赔风险的把控。本文运用随机森林模型预测保险费用，发现抽烟在很大程度上会增长保险费用，并且模型整体能解释保险费用变动的83.67%，拟合效果较好。

Abstract: As the pace of people’s lives becomes faster and faster, some people face major challenges on their physical and mental health due to the nature and intensity of their work. Smoking and increasing with age will increase their own health risks, and insurance has the effect of hedging this risk. Therefore, purchasing insurance has become a means for people to offset future risks. Insurance costs are the cost for us to obtain protection for the future, so forecasting insurance premiums will not only help us understand the uncertain future, plan our future work, but also help insurers control their own claims risks. This paper uses the random forest model to predict insurance costs and finds that smoking will increase insurance costs to a large extent, and the model as a whole can explain 83.67% of the changes in insurance costs, and the fitting effect is good.