基于三参数指数平滑天然气产量预测分析

Natural Gas Production Forecast Analysis Based on Three-Parameter Exponential Smoothing

摘要: 近年来，国际天然气价格暴涨，作为现阶段最清洁的能源，有家庭生活燃料、工业燃料、商业能源等多种用途，天然气的价格直接影响到天然气的开采量和使用量。同时，天然气是不可再生能源，其开采和使用需要一定的限制，因此对于国内天然气产量的预测是值得关注的问题。因为天然气产量存在明显的周期性和增长趋势，本文采用三参数指数平滑法对其月产量进行预测，预测结果符合前期增长规律，对于未来天然气的开采有一定的参考意义。

Abstract: In recent years, international natural gas prices have skyrocketed. As the cleanest energy at this stage, it has multiple uses such as household fuels, industrial fuels, and commercial energy. The price of natural gas directly affects the amount of natural gas extracted and used. At the same time, natural gas is a non-renewable energy source, and its exploitation and use require certain restrictions. Therefore, the forecast of domestic natural gas production is a matter of concern. Because of the obvious periodicity and growth trend of natural gas production, this paper uses the three-parameter exponential smoothing method to predict its monthly production. The prediction result conforms to the previous growth law and has certain reference significance for future natural gas extraction.