跨国公司企业并购的系统动力学研究——以奔驰并购克莱斯勒公司为例

Research on System Dynamics of M & A of Multinational Corporations—Taking Mercedes Benz’s M & A of Chrysler as an Example

摘要: 全球竞争和技术的不断进步正在显著改变企业的格局及其内部报告要求。本文通过对戴姆勒–奔驰公司WOTS-UP分析之前因构型，识别出与该公司未来发展相关的关键因素，并制定适当的策略来预测未来的发展和评估公司适应或利用这些发展的能力，然后通过开发支持战略选择的相关系统，将奔驰、克莱斯勒公司合并作为选定的方案并转化为具体的行动方案。其中的规划内容包括业务建模、资本预算和盈利能力管理，以及实施这些主题所需的相关系统。本文的结论部分着重于合并后的盈利能力分析，即运用系统动力学方法进行了合并后(1997~2006)的奔驰–克莱斯勒公司未来盈利趋势预测(2007~2019)，并将其与分开后奔驰、克莱斯勒公司的实际合并盈利(2007~2019)进行了对比，得出了有益的结论。

Abstract: Global competition and technological progress are significantly changing the pattern of enterprises and their internal reporting requirements. Based on the analysis of WOTS-UP of Daimler Benz Company, this paper identifies the key factors related to the future development of the company, and formulates appropriate strategies to predict the future development and evaluate the compa-ny’s ability to adapt to or utilize these developments. Then, through the development of relevant systems to support the strategic choice, the paper analyzes the WOTS-Up of Daimler Benz Company. The merger of Mercedes Benz and Chrysler is taken as the selected plan and transformed into a specific action plan. The planning content includes business modeling, capital budgeting and prof-itability management, as well as the related systems needed to implement these topics. The conclu-sion of this paper focuses on the profit capability analysis after the merger, namely the prediction of future profit trend of Mercedes Benz-Chrysler company (2007~2019) after the merger (1997~2006) by using the system dynamics method. Then compare it with the separated Mercedes Benz and Chrysler’s actual consolidated earnings (2007~2019) and useful conclusions are drawn.