温江近60年极端降水的变化特征分析

Analysis on the Variation Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in Wenjiang in the Recent 60 Years

摘要: 本文采用成都市温江站1960~2019年逐日降水量数据，采用百分位法计算得到极端降水量、极端降水日数、极端降水强度，利用线性倾向估计、累积距平等方法，对成都地区的极端降水事件进行了研究。结果表明：1) 极端降水量和极端降水日数呈波动下降趋势，但这种下降趋势并不显著。年际尺度上，极端降水量的变化趋势在1982年与2012年存在突变，极端降水日数的变化趋势在1973年与1997年存在突变。年代尺度上，二者的最高值均出现在60 s，最低值均出现在00 s。2) 近60 a极端降水强度呈现出波动变化，无线性趋势。年极端降水强度值在多年平均值线上下小幅波动，年代极端降水强度变化不大。

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data of Chengdu Wenjiang station from 1960 to 2019, the extreme precipitation, the number of days of extreme precipitation and the intensity of extreme precipitation are calculated by percentile method. The extreme precipitation events in Chengdu are studied by using linear trend estimation and cumulative anomaly. The results show that: 1) The extreme precipitation and extreme precipitation days show a fluctuating downward trend, but the downward trend is not significant. On the interannual scale, the variation trend of extreme precipitation was abrupt in 1982 and 2012, and the variation trend of extreme precipitation days was abrupt in 1973 and 1997. On the decade scale, the highest value of both appeared in 60 s and the lowest value appeared in 00 s. 2) In recent 60 years, the intensity of extreme precipitation showed a fluctuating change, without a linear trend. The annual extreme precipitation intensity fluctuates slightly above and below the multi-year average, but the annual extreme precipitation intensity changes little.