基于蒙特卡洛方法工期评估

Duration Evaluation Based on Monte Carlo Method

摘要: 全球新冠疫情的发展给全球原材料供应体系、工业物资生产以及港口贸易带来诸多障碍，表现在各国为应对新冠疫情而采取的货币政策造成原材料价格剧烈波动，以及关键长周期供货物资生产运输不确定、港口贸易滞后常态化等因素给海外石油工程EPC项目全寿命周期的执行带来了风险和挑战。本文将采用三角分布方法对项目关键路径的5个模拟任务进行工期模拟，再结合蒙特卡洛方法计算出项目总工期的最优工期，为后疫情情况下海外工程建设项目优化工期、资源配置提供依据，降低项目执行风险。

Abstract: The development of the global COVID-19 pandemic has brought many obstacles to the global raw material supply system, industrial material production and port trade, which are reflected in the dramatic fluctuations in raw material prices caused by the monetary policies adopted by countries in response to COVID-19, and uncertainties in the production and transportation of key long-cycle supplies, and normalized lag in port trade, which has brought risks and challenges to the implementation of the full life cycle of overseas petroleum engineering EPC projects. In this paper, five simulation tasks of the project critical path are simulated by using triangular distribution method, and the optimal project duration is calculated by combining with Monte Carlo method. It provides a basis for the optimization of time limit and resource allocation of overseas construction projects in the post-epidemic situation, and reduces the project execution risk.